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Key Points
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Bitcoin’s market dominance is slipping after reaching a recent multiyear high.
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Altcoin season indicators are mixed, with no clear trend yet.
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The next crypto winter may not be as harsh as the first three.
Market watchers like FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich have noticed a recent shift in the cryptocurrency market. Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk that Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) investors are moving some of their assets into altcoins such as Ethereum(CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana(CRYPTO: SOL).
At the same time, he concedes that the Bitcoin sales could be an early sign of the next crypto winter. So what’s next for crypto investors — another sectorwide selloff, or just a rebalancing of crypto investors’ cash?
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Is the king of crypto losing its crown to Ethereum and Solana?
Kuptsikevich based his analysis on the retreating Bitcoin price. As I’m writing this on the evening of Aug. 26, the largest crypto name has backed down 9.7% from its recent all-time peak. More specifically, Bitcoin is down 6% in the past 30 days while Ethereum gained 20.9% and Solana posted a milder 5.3% gain.
The crypto-market tenor extends to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the sector. The leading iShares Ethereum Trust(NASDAQ: ETHA) has seen asset inflows of 25.5% in the last month, but the iShares Bitcoin Trust(NASDAQ: IBIT) sister fund only grew its asset portfolio by 1%.
Bitcoin’s dominance over the crypto market rose steadily from December 2022 to July 2025, topping out with Bitcoin’s market value being nearly 65% of the total crypto market. Since then, the dominance metric has dipped to a still-impressive 57%. Bitcoin remains the king of the hill, but its iron grip over the crypto sector is growing a little weaker.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is “average” the new “awesome”?
Other metrics are less conclusive.
CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index, for example, sits right in the middle of the chart on a sideways trend over the summer. And if you look at the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies in the last year, they saw a collective gain of 79% while Bitcoin rose by 76%. In other words, the market-driving Bitcoin chart has stayed close to the average performance of other large crypto names.
What would a true altcoin season actually look like?
Keeping all these technical indicators in mind, it’s important to note that a proper altcoin season would be the result of some fundamental shift in the cryptocurrency sector itself.
Surging transaction volumes on the Ethereum and Solana blockchain networks could be one example, indicating broader real-world use of these smart contract platforms. Lots of new active addresses on those networks would be a sign of rapidly increasing developer activity — another bullish trend.
I don’t see any of these positive signs for Solana right now, though Ethereum is trending in the right direction. But you know what — Ethereum is indeed outperforming Solana in terms of recent price gains. You never really know what goes on behind the curtain of these digital assets, but this accurate pairing of blockchain activity and price gains suggests that market makers might base their coin prices on actual cryptocurrency qualities.
And if that’s the case, wider use of cryptocurrencies could lead to a real altcoin season. Bitcoin should also benefit from a general crypto surge, but not nearly as quickly as the smart contract experts leading the charge.
The next crypto winter could be milder than you think
So where is the crypto sector going next?
From a historic perspective, it’s almost time to start the next crypto winter in preparation for another boom-and-bust cycle around the 2028 Bitcoin halving event. But the strict calendar patterns of earlier Bitcoin halvings have evolved into softer trends with fewer sudden surprises.
The mere presence of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs seems to have a calming effect on crypto prices, and the current government’s crypto-friendly policies are also helping. As a result, the crypto sector could sort of skip the expected crypto winter and just trade sideways or slightly higher for a couple of years. That is, unless decentralized finance tools and Web3 concepts take over the crypto narrative for a while. That would be the start of a significant altcoin season.
I’m speaking in generalities because it’s pretty much impossible to nail down future tech-culture shifts and the financial market reactions they inspire. At the same time, top cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum look poised for wealth-building returns in the long run. With that mindset, I don’t really care whether Bitcoin pulls ahead or lags behind the altcoins in 2025 or 2026. The winning idea is to buy each long-term winner on the dips, hold on with so-called diamond hands when the market is tough, and celebrate the resulting wealth many years later.
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Anders Bylund has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, iShares Bitcoin Trust, and iShares Ethereum Trust. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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