Fundamental
Overview
The strong US
NFP report last Friday triggered some defensive positioning in Bitcoin as
we head into the US CPI and FOMC decision tomorrow. In the big picture, the
data didn’t change much but it added a bit of uncertainty into the market which
is now waiting for the US CPI to clear it out.
In case the US CPI comes
out soft, then we can expect Bitcoin getting a boost and possibly breaking to
new highs. Conversely, a hot report will likely trigger another selloff and
take us back to the 60K support zone.
Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin couldn’t extend above the 72000 resistance
and eventually dropped back into the 67275 support following the US NFP
release. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a break above the resistance with a better
risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 60000 support zone.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke below the trendline which is generally a sign of
weakening momentum. This has turned the bias a bit more bearish in the short-term
although we will likely need a decisive break below the 67275 support to strengthen
the bearish momentum. For now, the price will likely keep ranging between the
67275 support and the 72000 resistance.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is trading right at the support zone and it’s also around
the lower limit of the average
daily range. This might be a good dip buying opportunity for the buyers as the
price is unlikely to extend further without a strong catalyst.
The first target should be
the downward trendline where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.
A break above the trendline should see the buyers increasing the bullish bets into
the resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on the trendline
to position for a break below the support with a better risk to reward setup.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is a bit empty on the data front although we will
have the biggest market moving events tomorrow when we get the US CPI data and
the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we have the US PPI and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.